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DEMOCRATS LOVE TRUMP BECAUSE THEY KNOW HILLARY CAN BEAT HIM
A Perspective of the S. Carolina Primary and how Democrats spoiled it.
I am Michael Harrington and I do numbers. I really love numbers. Therefore I always know a bit behind the scenes more than most. Oh and did I say I love politics? This breakdown shows how it is likely if there was no Democrats voting in S. Carolina that Ted Cruz would have won the Primary.
First we get historical data, we get a decent “neutral” location (New Hampshire) to compare with, and we go from there.
In 2008 the Republican Primary brought 445,677 people to vote. The Democrat Primary got 532,468 people. In 2012, when Democrats felt confident that only Barack would be nominated this changed dramatically. This became 603,770 voters in the Republican Primary while Barack Obama was declared “unopposed” (which meant no Democrats needed to vote for their party, all could interfere in Republican elections).
In 2016 we had 712,633 votes cast in the Republican Primary. Interestingly enough 3 counties had very low turnout. Two of these three are primarily rural regions.
Examining a population map, a 2012 voting statistics map, and the 2016 map (see attached picture) we see that the Democrat Counties tended to vote at at a 10-20% level usually with one voting in the 20-30% range. In some areas turnout did get 30-40% but in general these regions are medium density with 2 exceptions. Richland County, a Rubio grabbed county, is the biggest of those two. Deeper looking finds that Democrat Counties often voted for Trump at 15-25% (average of 20% almost looks like) higher than the next highest candidate.
Turnout varied, with some regions experiencing a high result, and others not seeing much of a spike.
Non-Democrat counties tended to be lower by far for Trump with a few notable exceptions. However those exceptions are the heavier populated areas. Two counties went to Rubio, remarkably one of them is a heavy Democrat county easily won by Obama in 2012.
So what does all this mean? A 267,000 vote increase is rather remarkable. This means most of that is Democrats. New Hampshire went from 247,000 roughly in 2012 to 284,000 in 2016. As well as 238,000 in 2008. They did not see a 50% spike in numbers, they saw a 19% increase. This is “Trump land” as well! So therefore we can start some easy conclusions.
1) Trump probably won close to 170,000 Democrat spoiler votes. Yes that many came out to spoil the election and I just do not see a spike in Kasich, Bush, or Carson enough to validate them having got those votes.
2) Rubio likely won some Democrat votes in his Southern County of Charleston as well as the votes Trump got. I estimate approximately 3,000 votes across the State went to assist Rubio in putting him over the top, perhaps as high as 7,000.
3) A reduction of 170,000 votes would make Trump be a low 3rd placer. The difference with the Rubio gains would also put Ted Cruz in 1st place with Rubio a close 2nd.
4) Yes I said Ted Cruz would have been in 1st place.
It is likely that this and other factors played to reduce Trump, though the Open Primary did not demonstrate it.
Verification will be easy on this as well. When the Democrats hold their Primary in South Carolina expect that they will have less than 390,000 votes between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. This will reflect that a large turnout went directly to spoil the Republican election in S. Carolina.
What this reflects is the dangers of an Open Primary. It may be that we may have to convince States to end their Open Primaries via threat of reducing their total delegates by half or more if they wish to remain in Open Primary status. This would be done with a new GOP National Platform.
This demonstrates the fact that panic is not called for, Ted Cruz is doing just fine. Expose Marco Rubio on his lies, make it so Establishment supporters realize he would lose to even a revived Al Gore in a general election because he just cannot ever tell the truth. Continue to show that Trump is a liar, a crook, a con-artist and there will not be any problems there as well.
ABYSSUS ABYSSUM INVOCAT / DEEP CALLS TO DEEP 
….I need to go back and note that I did some checking and, please: Rubio did not pull any fast ones regarding Spanish Radio, Cruz, and his ‘rescinding/not rescinding …amnesty bill on first day in office.’ Rubio verified to Bill O’Reilly BEFORE the debates that he indeed made the statement that he would not rescind the Obama amnesty bill’ with the sensible explanation that it would take more time and detail than simply doing it on the first day. That the details in fairness to everyone and thing involved needed more work. I turned to my husband during that debate and stated how I’d already heard Rubio verify he indeed said that and gave the rest of the context which made complete good sense of the issue and his (Rubio’s) stance on it. We could double check on Rubio’s website, as he directed, but again, I did listen to his reasoned explanation prior to the hooplah. The Cruz line on this is out of context.